Demand for Animal Products May Double in 20 years

As the world's population grows, the need to ensureof having pandemics. Other illnesses such as West
food safety from farms to fork has become a majorNile virus, bluetongue and foot and mouth disease are
international concern, with most of the attentionsome recent examples of highly contagious animal
focused on livestock. Producer Zulima Palacio talkedillnesses that can travel around the globe just as fast
to some of the world authorities in this field. Milas humans do.
Arcega narrates the story.In order to keep their livestock healthy, producers
The world's population is growing at a tremendoushave embraced the regular use of antibiotics.
pace - adding about 78 million people a year. UnitedBernard Vallat from OIE says the use of antibiotics
Nations estimates show that by the year 2030 morecan be dangerous if they are not carefully controlled
than eight billion people will inhabit the Earth, strainingby veterinarians. But he says thousands of tons of
the world's ability to feed itself.antibiotics are used worldwide every year. "If
Bernard Vallat is the director of the Worldantibiotics are used as sweets [like candy] - without
Organization for Animal Health, or OIE [for Officecontrol - this is dangerous, because bacteria in animals
International des Epizooties] describes the operation.can become resistant and then infect humans."
"We know that we have in the coming 10 years, oneThe population pressure for the fast and massive
billion additional meat consumers in China, India andproduction of animal products has also forced
other emerging countries" he said.livestock production into higher density, with fewer
"In the following two decades the demand for animalbut more productive animal breeds.
products is going to double and so the supply is goingAnni McLeod of the U.N. Food and Agriculture
to follow the demand and because of all kind ofOrganization (FAO) says genetic diversity may be
constraints, this supply of animal products is going toneeded in the future. "In poultry for example, there
come from developing countries," said Francois Leare about three or four companies that control most
Gall.of the poultry breeds in the world and there are
Le Gall, of the World Bank agrees with Vallat'svery, very few breeds that make up the genetic
assessment that only 40 out of about 200 countriesstock of all the commercial poultry that we have"
in the world have the capacity to respond to a healthMcLeod said.
crisis that originates from animal disease.There are no global estimates for environmental,
Two diseases in particular - mad cow and avian flu -social and economic losses due to illnesses of animals
have had devastating effects in the last 20 years.raised for human consumption. McLeod suggests
Mad cow disease first emerged among cattle inthinking of a very large number and adding several
Britain in the mid 1980s, and since then has appearedzeros.
in other European countries, North America and Asia.McLeod adds, "Almost any estimate we come out
It has forced the destruction of large herds, causedwith is going to be like an iceberg, and the part that
huge economic losses and the deaths of about 150affects really poor people would be the piece under
people.water, that you don't know about."
Avian flu, also known as the H5N1 virus, firstMcLeod and others agree that if nothing is done to
appeared in 2003, and has forced the slaughter ofprevent diseases in livestock for human consumption
about 100 million birds in Asia, especially in Vietnam.the world could face a major crisis in the next 10
The human and economic losses have beenyears.
devastating."I wouldn't call Avian influenza in any way positive,
"This is not a new situation, diseases that are comingbut perhaps one thing it has enabled us to do is to
from animals to humans - it's happened sincehighlight the fact that investment is going to be
beginning of humanity. But the reason for the newneeded for a long time" McLeod said.
trends now is the globalization, climate change,The international community is mobilizing to meet the
mobility of the population, the globalization of animalchallenge. The World Bank, the U.N. and the World
products, etceteras. Every year we have a newOrganization for Animal Health or OIE are all working
disease and 75 percent of these diseases are oftogether on several levels regarding food safety,
animal origin." Le Gall added.veterinarian services, packing and transportation.
Le Gall says globalization has enhanced the probability